mirror of
https://github.com/lynchaos/ashvale-station.git
synced 2026-09-12 20:52:23 +00:00
kemal
4cca40388f
A room held at a setpoint is a different process from one left to drift. It is
a closed loop, and persistence, the baseline everything here is scored against,
is the wrong statement about it: the truth is not that it stays where it is, it
is that it returns to the setpoint.
So site.heating adds a fourth ensemble member, first order because that is what
a controlled system is:
dT_set(h) = (T_set - T_now) * (1 - exp(-h / tau))
Humidity follows and is the part that is easy to get wrong. Heating adds no
moisture, so vapour pressure is conserved and not relative humidity:
RH(h) = RH_now * es(T_now) / es(T_now + dT_set(h))
Warm the air and RH falls although nothing was dried, which is why a heated
house in winter is dry. The test asserts the dew point is unchanged to 1e-6.
Pressure gets zero: a thermostat cannot move the synoptic field.
Offered, not imposed. Hedge scores this member on realised error like any
other, so a wrong tau or a stale setpoint costs accuracy and gets down-weighted
rather than quietly biasing every forecast. Verified: on history with no
heating the ensemble assigned it weight 0.000. With heating off it returns zero
and is identical to persistence.
Going from three members to four means old saved heads must migrate.
from_dict reinitialises weights and member_mae. I missed member_mae first time
and it did not fail on load, it failed later inside learn() on a broadcast
error, which is a much worse place to find out; the migration test now covers
both and calls learn() to prove it.
Settings tab gains the toggle, setpoint and time constant. Turning heating on
or off is treated as a regime change like a door: discontinuity marker plus a
queued retrain.
768 lines
34 KiB
Python
768 lines
34 KiB
Python
# Copyright 2026 Kemal Yaylali
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#
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# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
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# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
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# You may obtain a copy of the License at
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#
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# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
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#
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# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
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# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
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# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
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# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
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# limitations under the License.
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"""The station: everything wired together and running on its own clocks.
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Four asynchronous loops, deliberately decoupled so a slow one cannot
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starve a fast one:
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sample (2 s) read hardware, run the Kalman bank, keep live state
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persist (30 s) one row to SQLite
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train (10 min) rebuild the feature grid, update every head, re-fit
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climatology, emit a fresh forecast bundle
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verify (5 min) score forecasts whose validity time has arrived, feed
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the errors to conformal calibration and drift
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detection, write the scorecard
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The verify loop is the one most projects skip and the one that makes the
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difference. A forecast that is never scored is an opinion; a forecast
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that is scored against persistence is a measurement.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import asyncio
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import json
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import math
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import time
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from pathlib import Path
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from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
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import numpy as np
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from . import physics
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from .config import Config
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from .estimation import KalmanCV, SignalTracker
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from .features import build_features
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from .models.anomaly import AnomalyMonitor
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from .models.climatology import HarmonicClimatology
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from .models.nowcast import NowcastEnsemble
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from .models.precip import PrecipitationModel, proxy_wet_label, zambretti
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from .sensors import OutdoorProbe, SenseBoard, enrich
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from .storage import Store, resample
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STATE_VERSION = 1
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class Station:
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def __init__(self, cfg: Config):
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self.cfg = cfg
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self.store = Store(cfg.storage.db_path)
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self.board = SenseBoard(
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rotation=cfg.sensor.rotation_deg,
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low_light=cfg.sensor.low_light,
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tcs_addr=cfg.sensor.tcs3400_addr,
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latitude=cfg.site.latitude,
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longitude=cfg.site.longitude,
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)
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# Optional and entirely absent on a board without one wired up.
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self.probe = (OutdoorProbe(cfg.sensor.outdoor_probe_period_s)
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if cfg.sensor.outdoor_probe else None)
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self.tracker = SignalTracker(cfg)
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self.nowcast = NowcastEnsemble(cfg.model.targets, cfg.model.horizons_s, cfg.model)
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self.climatology = HarmonicClimatology(
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cfg.model.targets, min_days_annual=cfg.model.climatology_min_days_annual
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)
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self.precip = PrecipitationModel()
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self.monitor = AnomalyMonitor(cfg.model)
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self.live: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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self.forecast_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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self.outlook_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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self.precip_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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self.anomaly_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
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self.last_train: float = 0.0
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self.last_persist: float = 0.0
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self.last_compact: float = 0.0
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self.training_log: List[Dict] = []
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self._tasks: List[asyncio.Task] = []
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self._stop = asyncio.Event()
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self.state_path = Path(cfg.storage.state_dir) / "station_state.json"
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self.load_state()
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# ------------------------------------------------------------ state
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def save_state(self) -> None:
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payload = {
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"version": STATE_VERSION,
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"saved_at": time.time(),
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"tracker": self.tracker.to_dict(),
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"nowcast": self.nowcast.to_dict(),
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"climatology": self.climatology.to_dict(),
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"precip": self.precip.to_dict(),
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"monitor": self.monitor.to_dict(),
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}
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tmp = self.state_path.with_suffix(".tmp")
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with open(tmp, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
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json.dump(payload, fh)
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tmp.replace(self.state_path) # atomic, survives a power cut mid-write
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def load_state(self) -> bool:
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if not self.state_path.exists():
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return False
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try:
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with open(self.state_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
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s = json.load(fh)
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if s.get("version") != STATE_VERSION:
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return False
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self.tracker.load_dict(s["tracker"])
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self.nowcast.load_dict(s["nowcast"])
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self.climatology.load_dict(s["climatology"])
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self.precip.load_dict(s["precip"])
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self.monitor.load_dict(s["monitor"])
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return True
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except Exception as exc:
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self.store.log_event("state", "warn", f"could not restore state: {exc}")
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return False
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# ----------------------------------------------------------- sample
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def sample_once(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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ts = time.time()
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raw = self.board.read()
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raw = enrich(raw, self.cfg.site.altitude_m)
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est = self.tracker.step(ts, raw.get("temp_raw", float("nan")),
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raw.get("hum", float("nan")),
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raw.get("press", float("nan")),
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raw.get("cpu_temp", float("nan")))
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temp_c = est["temp_smooth"]
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slp = float(physics.sea_level_pressure(est["press_smooth"], temp_c,
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self.cfg.site.altitude_m))
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dew = float(physics.dew_point(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"]))
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elev, azim = physics.solar_position(ts, self.cfg.site.latitude,
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self.cfg.site.longitude)
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expected = float(physics.clear_sky_irradiance(elev))
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lux = float(raw.get("lux", 0.0) or 0.0)
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cloud = (float(np.clip(1.0 - lux / max(expected * 45.0, 1.0), 0.0, 1.0))
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if elev > 5.0 else 0.5)
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row = {
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"ts": ts,
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"temp_raw": raw.get("temp_raw"),
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"temp_c": est["temp_c"],
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"temp_smooth": temp_c,
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"temp_rate": est["temp_rate"],
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"hum": raw.get("hum"),
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"hum_smooth": est["hum_smooth"],
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"press": raw.get("press"),
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"press_slp": slp,
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"press_smooth": est["press_smooth"],
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"press_rate": est["press_rate"],
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"cpu_temp": raw.get("cpu_temp"),
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"dew_c": dew,
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"lux": lux,
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"r": raw.get("r"), "g": raw.get("g"), "b": raw.get("b"),
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"pitch": raw.get("pitch"), "roll": raw.get("roll"),
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"yaw": raw.get("yaw"), "compass": raw.get("compass"),
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"ax": raw.get("ax"), "ay": raw.get("ay"), "az": raw.get("az"),
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"gx": raw.get("gx"), "gy": raw.get("gy"), "gz": raw.get("gz"),
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}
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anomaly = self.monitor.observe(ts, {
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"temp_c": temp_c, "hum": est["hum_smooth"], "press_slp": slp,
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"temp_rate": est["temp_rate"], "press_rate": est["press_rate"],
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"dew_c": dew, "cpu_temp": raw.get("cpu_temp"),
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})
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self.anomaly_bundle = anomaly
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self.live = {
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**row,
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"timestamp": time.strftime("%H:%M:%S", time.localtime(ts)),
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"colour": raw.get("colour", {}),
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"simulated": bool(raw.get("simulated", not self.board.available)),
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"dew_depression": temp_c - dew,
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"vpd": float(physics.vapour_pressure_deficit(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
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"wet_bulb": float(physics.wet_bulb(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
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"heat_index": float(physics.heat_index(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
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"abs_humidity": float(physics.absolute_humidity(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
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"solar_elevation": float(elev),
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"solar_azimuth": float(azim),
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"clear_sky_wm2": expected,
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"cloud_index": cloud,
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"cpu_offset": (raw.get("cpu_temp") or float("nan")) - (raw.get("temp_raw") or float("nan")),
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"compensator_k": self.tracker.compensator.k,
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"hum_offset": self.tracker.hum_compensator.offset,
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"outdoor_c": (self.probe.read() if self.probe is not None else None),
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"hum_psychrometric": float(est["hum_c"]) - float(raw.get("hum") or float("nan")),
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"health": anomaly["health_overall"],
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"novelty_d2": anomaly["novelty"].get("d2", 0.0),
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}
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self._update_precip()
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return self.live
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def _observation_vector(self) -> Dict[str, float]:
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live = self.live
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hist = self.store.window(8.0, ["ts", "press_slp", "temp_c", "dew_c"])
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tend = {"tend_1h": live.get("press_rate", 0.0),
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"tend_3h": live.get("press_rate", 0.0),
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"tend_6h": live.get("press_rate", 0.0)}
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if hist["ts"].size > 5:
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now = hist["ts"][-1]
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for key, hours in (("tend_1h", 1.0), ("tend_3h", 3.0), ("tend_6h", 6.0)):
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idx = np.searchsorted(hist["ts"], now - hours * 3600.0)
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if 0 <= idx < hist["ts"].size - 1:
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dtp = (now - hist["ts"][idx]) / 3600.0
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if dtp > 0.25:
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tend[key] = float((hist["press_slp"][-1] - hist["press_slp"][idx]) / dtp)
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dew_dep = live.get("dew_depression", 5.0)
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dew_dep_rate = 0.0
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if hist["ts"].size > 5:
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idx = np.searchsorted(hist["ts"], hist["ts"][-1] - 3600.0)
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if 0 <= idx < hist["ts"].size - 1:
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past = hist["temp_c"][idx] - hist["dew_c"][idx]
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dew_dep_rate = float(dew_dep - past)
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return {
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"slp": live.get("press_slp", 1013.25),
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"rh": live.get("hum_smooth", 60.0),
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"dew_depression": dew_dep,
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"dew_dep_rate": dew_dep_rate,
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"cloud_index": live.get("cloud_index", 0.5),
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"temp_dev": self.climatology.anomaly_now(
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"temperature", live.get("ts", time.time()), live.get("temp_smooth", 0.0)
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),
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"wet_bulb_depression": live.get("temp_smooth", 0.0) - live.get("wet_bulb", 0.0),
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**tend,
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}
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def _update_precip(self) -> None:
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obs = self._observation_vector()
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zam = zambretti(obs["slp"], obs["tend_3h"], self.live.get("ts"),
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self.cfg.site.latitude)
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self.precip_bundle = self.precip.predict(obs, zam)
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self.precip_bundle["indoors_caveat"] = self.cfg.site.indoors
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y = proxy_wet_label(obs["rh"], obs["dew_depression"], obs["cloud_index"])
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if y is not None and int(self.live.get("ts", 0)) % 300 < self.cfg.sensor.sample_period_s:
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self.precip.learn(obs, zam, y, strong=False)
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def add_label(self, kind: str, value: float, ts: Optional[float] = None,
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note: str = "") -> Dict:
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"""Human-in-the-loop ground truth. Worth ten times a proxy label."""
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ts = ts or time.time()
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self.store.insert_label(ts, kind, value, note)
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if kind == "rain":
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obs = self._observation_vector()
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zam = zambretti(obs["slp"], obs["tend_3h"], ts, self.cfg.site.latitude)
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loss = self.precip.learn(obs, zam, float(value), strong=True)
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self.store.log_event("label", "info",
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f"strong rain label {value} accepted, loss {loss:.3f}", ts)
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return {"accepted": True, "loss": loss, "strong_labels": self.precip.n_strong}
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return {"accepted": True}
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def calibrate_temperature(self, reference_c: float) -> Dict:
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raw = self.live.get("temp_raw")
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cpu = self.live.get("cpu_temp")
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if raw is None or cpu is None:
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return {"error": "no live reading yet"}
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result = self.tracker.compensator.calibrate(float(raw), float(cpu), float(reference_c))
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self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
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f"k -> {result['k']:.3f} (residual {result['residual']:+.2f} C)")
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# Discontinuity marker: everything logged before this instant used a
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# different coefficient. Kept as its own event kind so the scorecard and
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# the records view can find it without parsing prose.
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self.store.log_event("discontinuity", "warn",
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f"temperature k {result['k']:.4f}")
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return result
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def calibrate_humidity(self, reference_pct: float) -> Dict:
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raw_h = self.live.get("hum")
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raw_t = self.live.get("temp_raw")
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temp_c = self.live.get("temp_c")
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if raw_h is None or raw_t is None or temp_c is None:
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return {"error": "no live reading yet"}
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result = self.tracker.hum_compensator.calibrate(
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float(raw_h), float(raw_t), float(temp_c), float(reference_pct))
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self.save_state()
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self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
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f"rh offset -> {result['offset']:+.2f}% "
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f"(residual {result['residual']:+.2f}%)")
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self.store.log_event("discontinuity", "warn",
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f"humidity offset {result['offset']:+.4f}")
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return result
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def reset_humidity_calibration(self) -> Dict:
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from .estimation import HumidityCompensator
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self.tracker.hum_compensator = HumidityCompensator(
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self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset, self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset_min,
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self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset_max,
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psychrometric=self.cfg.sensor.hum_psychrometric,
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)
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self.save_state()
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self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
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f"rh offset reset to prior {self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset}")
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return {"offset": self.tracker.hum_compensator.offset, "reset": True, "n": 0}
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def recompute_history(self) -> Dict:
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"""Re-derive every compensated column from the stored raw values.
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Why this exists: calibration only changes readings from that moment on,
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so a correction of any size leaves a step in the record. Measured on this
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station, one humidity calibration put a 25-point discontinuity through
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the middle of the day. That contaminates the all-time records with values
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that were never real weather, and makes the learners train across a jump.
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It is possible at all because the raw columns are never overwritten:
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`temp_raw`, `cpu_temp` and `hum` are exactly what the sensor reported, so
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the current coefficients can be applied to the whole history.
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The Kalman levels are re-run rather than shifted, because the filter is
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not a constant offset. That means the smoothing is *re-derived*, not bit
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identical to what was logged live: the replay sees the stored cadence,
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which for tiered rows is coarser than the 2 s the filter runs at. The
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levels are right, the fine texture of old raw rows is not recoverable.
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"""
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data = self.store.all_for_recompute()
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ts = data["ts"]
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if ts.size == 0:
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return {"rows": 0, "reason": "no history"}
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t0 = time.time()
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comp, hcomp = self.tracker.compensator, self.tracker.hum_compensator
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n = ts.size
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temp_c = np.empty(n)
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hum_c = np.empty(n)
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for i in range(n):
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tr, cp, hu = data["temp_raw"][i], data["cpu_temp"][i], data["hum"][i]
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temp_c[i] = comp.compensate(tr, cp) if np.isfinite(tr) and np.isfinite(cp) else tr
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hum_c[i] = (hcomp.compensate(hu, tr, temp_c[i])
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if np.isfinite(hu) and np.isfinite(tr) else hu)
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# Replay the filters over the corrected series. Fresh instances, so an
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# old contaminated state cannot leak into the re-derivation.
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kt = KalmanCV(self.cfg.sensor.kalman_q_temp, self.cfg.sensor.kalman_r_temp)
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kh = KalmanCV(self.cfg.sensor.kalman_q_hum, self.cfg.sensor.kalman_r_hum)
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q_temp = float(self.cfg.sensor.kalman_q_temp)
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q_hum = float(self.cfg.sensor.kalman_q_hum)
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live_dt = float(self.cfg.sensor.sample_period_s)
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temp_s = np.empty(n)
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temp_r = np.empty(n)
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hum_s = np.empty(n)
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prev = None
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for i in range(n):
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dt = live_dt if prev is None else max(ts[i] - prev, 1e-3)
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prev = ts[i]
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# q is tuned for the live 2 s cadence and Q scales with dt^3, so
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# replaying stored rows at their own spacing (30 s raw, 300 s and
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# 3600 s once tiered) inflates the process noise by up to seven
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# orders of magnitude. The filter then abandons smoothing and tracks
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# measurement noise, which showed up as indoor rates of +/-20 C/h.
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# Rescaled per step because tiers mean the cadence is not constant.
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scale = (live_dt / dt) ** 3
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kt.q = q_temp * scale
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kh.q = q_hum * scale
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lvl, rate = kt.update(temp_c[i], dt)
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temp_s[i], temp_r[i] = lvl, rate * 3600.0
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hum_s[i], _ = kh.update(hum_c[i], dt)
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dew = np.asarray(physics.dew_point(temp_s, hum_s), dtype=float)
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slp = np.asarray(physics.sea_level_pressure(
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data["press"], temp_s, self.cfg.site.altitude_m), dtype=float)
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written = self.store.apply_recompute(ts, {
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"temp_c": temp_c, "temp_smooth": temp_s, "temp_rate": temp_r,
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"hum_smooth": hum_s, "dew_c": dew, "press_slp": slp,
|
|
})
|
|
secs = time.time() - t0
|
|
self.store.log_event(
|
|
"recompute", "info",
|
|
f"re-derived {written} rows from raw with k={comp.k:.4f}, "
|
|
f"rh offset={hcomp.offset:+.2f}% in {secs:.1f}s")
|
|
return {"rows": written, "seconds": round(secs, 2),
|
|
"k": comp.k, "hum_offset": hcomp.offset}
|
|
|
|
def _setpoint_delta(self, target: str, horizon_s: int, anchor: float) -> float:
|
|
"""Where a thermostatted room is heading, as a delta from now.
|
|
|
|
A controlled room is first order: the heating closes the gap to the
|
|
setpoint exponentially, so after time h the remaining error is
|
|
exp(-h/tau) of what it was. The expected change is therefore
|
|
|
|
dT(h) = (T_set - T_now) * (1 - exp(-h / tau))
|
|
|
|
which is zero at h=0 and asymptotes to the full correction. That is a
|
|
much better statement about a heated room than persistence, which claims
|
|
the room stays wherever it happens to be.
|
|
|
|
Humidity follows for free and is the part people get wrong. Heating adds
|
|
no moisture, so vapour pressure is what is conserved, not relative
|
|
humidity. Warm the air and RH falls even though nothing was dried:
|
|
|
|
RH(h) = RH_now * es(T_now) / es(T_now + dT(h))
|
|
|
|
This is why a heated house in winter is dry. Pressure is unaffected: a
|
|
thermostat cannot move the synoptic field, so that member stays at zero
|
|
and the ensemble will correctly ignore it.
|
|
|
|
Returns 0.0 when heating is off, which makes this member identical to
|
|
persistence and therefore harmless.
|
|
"""
|
|
site = self.cfg.site
|
|
if not site.heating:
|
|
return 0.0
|
|
tau_s = max(float(site.thermal_time_constant_h), 0.05) * 3600.0
|
|
closed = 1.0 - math.exp(-float(horizon_s) / tau_s)
|
|
|
|
temp_now = self.live.get("temp_smooth")
|
|
if temp_now is None:
|
|
return 0.0
|
|
d_temp = (float(site.heating_setpoint_c) - float(temp_now)) * closed
|
|
|
|
if target == "temperature":
|
|
return d_temp
|
|
if target == "humidity":
|
|
# Constant vapour pressure, so RH moves only because es(T) moved.
|
|
es_now = float(physics.saturation_vapour_pressure(temp_now))
|
|
es_fut = float(physics.saturation_vapour_pressure(temp_now + d_temp))
|
|
if es_fut <= 1e-9:
|
|
return 0.0
|
|
rh_now = float(anchor)
|
|
return float(np.clip(rh_now * es_now / es_fut, 0.0, 100.0)) - rh_now
|
|
return 0.0
|
|
|
|
def set_environment(self, environment: Optional[str] = None,
|
|
enclosure: Optional[str] = None,
|
|
note: str = "") -> Dict:
|
|
"""Record a change in the sensor's surroundings and act on it.
|
|
|
|
Not cosmetic. A door closing changes how strongly the sensor couples to
|
|
outside, which is a regime change in the very process the heads are
|
|
fitting. Their forgetting factor is 0.9985 on a five minute grid, about
|
|
55 hours of memory, so left alone they keep predicting the old room for
|
|
two days. Page-Hinkley would eventually notice from forecast error, but
|
|
it needs matured forecasts to do it, which at the longer horizons is
|
|
exactly the two days you were trying to skip.
|
|
|
|
So this does three things: writes a discontinuity marker so the record
|
|
shows where the regime changed, requests a retrain so the fit is redone
|
|
against recent data rather than drifting, and stores the new state for
|
|
the API and the Methods page to report honestly.
|
|
"""
|
|
changed = []
|
|
if environment and environment != self.cfg.site.environment:
|
|
changed.append(f"environment {self.cfg.site.environment} -> {environment}")
|
|
self.cfg.site.environment = environment
|
|
if enclosure and enclosure != self.cfg.site.enclosure:
|
|
changed.append(f"enclosure {self.cfg.site.enclosure} -> {enclosure}")
|
|
self.cfg.site.enclosure = enclosure
|
|
if not changed:
|
|
return {"changed": False, "environment": self.cfg.site.environment,
|
|
"enclosure": self.cfg.site.enclosure}
|
|
|
|
detail = "; ".join(changed) + (f" ({note})" if note else "")
|
|
self.store.log_event("environment", "info", detail)
|
|
self.store.log_event("discontinuity", "warn", detail)
|
|
self.monitor.retrain_requested = True
|
|
return {"changed": True, "environment": self.cfg.site.environment,
|
|
"enclosure": self.cfg.site.enclosure,
|
|
"retrain_requested": True, "detail": detail}
|
|
|
|
def reset_calibration(self) -> Dict:
|
|
"""Return the self-heating coefficient to its configured prior.
|
|
|
|
Worth having: a single mistyped reference reading can drive `k`
|
|
to its clamp, and because state persists across restarts it will
|
|
stay there quietly biasing every reading until you notice.
|
|
"""
|
|
from .estimation import ThermalCompensator
|
|
self.tracker.compensator = ThermalCompensator(
|
|
self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k, self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k_min,
|
|
self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k_max,
|
|
)
|
|
self.save_state()
|
|
self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
|
|
f"coefficient reset to prior k={self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k}")
|
|
return {"k": self.tracker.compensator.k, "reset": True, "n": 0}
|
|
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------ train
|
|
|
|
def build_training_grid(self, hours: float = 24 * 30):
|
|
raw = self.store.window(hours, ["ts", "temp_smooth", "hum_smooth",
|
|
"press_slp", "lux"])
|
|
if raw["ts"].size < 10:
|
|
return None
|
|
grid_ts, cols = resample(
|
|
raw["ts"],
|
|
{"temperature": raw["temp_smooth"], "humidity": raw["hum_smooth"],
|
|
"pressure": raw["press_slp"], "lux": raw["lux"]},
|
|
self.cfg.model.grid_s,
|
|
)
|
|
if grid_ts.size < self.cfg.model.min_rows_to_train:
|
|
return None
|
|
X, valid = build_features(
|
|
grid_ts, cols["temperature"], cols["humidity"], cols["pressure"],
|
|
cols["lux"], self.cfg.model.grid_s,
|
|
self.cfg.site.latitude, self.cfg.site.longitude,
|
|
)
|
|
return grid_ts, cols, X, valid
|
|
|
|
def train(self, hours: float = 24 * 30) -> Dict:
|
|
t_start = time.time()
|
|
built = self.build_training_grid(hours)
|
|
if built is None:
|
|
return {"trained": False,
|
|
"reason": f"need at least {self.cfg.model.min_rows_to_train} grid rows"}
|
|
grid_ts, cols, X, valid = built
|
|
|
|
clim_scores = self.climatology.fit(grid_ts, cols, valid)
|
|
counts = self.nowcast.fit(X, valid, cols, self.climatology, grid_ts,
|
|
setpoint_fn=self._setpoint_delta)
|
|
|
|
self.last_train = time.time()
|
|
self.monitor.clear_retrain_flag()
|
|
entry = {
|
|
"ts": self.last_train,
|
|
"grid_rows": int(grid_ts.size),
|
|
"valid_rows": int(valid.sum()),
|
|
"span_days": round(float((grid_ts[-1] - grid_ts[0]) / 86400.0), 2),
|
|
"pairs": counts,
|
|
"climatology_resid_std": {k: round(v, 3) for k, v in clim_scores.items()},
|
|
"annual_terms": self.climatology.use_annual,
|
|
"seconds": round(time.time() - t_start, 2),
|
|
}
|
|
self.training_log = ([entry] + self.training_log)[:20]
|
|
self.store.log_event("train", "info",
|
|
f"retrained on {grid_ts.size} grid rows in {entry['seconds']}s")
|
|
self.refresh_forecasts()
|
|
self.save_state()
|
|
return {"trained": True, **entry}
|
|
|
|
# --------------------------------------------------------- forecast
|
|
|
|
def refresh_forecasts(self, persist: bool = True) -> Dict:
|
|
built = self.build_training_grid(hours=48.0)
|
|
now = time.time()
|
|
if built is None or not self.live:
|
|
return {}
|
|
grid_ts, cols, X, valid = built
|
|
x_now = X[-1]
|
|
|
|
anchors = {
|
|
"temperature": float(self.live.get("temp_smooth", cols["temperature"][-1])),
|
|
"humidity": float(self.live.get("hum_smooth", cols["humidity"][-1])),
|
|
"pressure": float(self.live.get("press_slp", cols["pressure"][-1])),
|
|
}
|
|
fc = self.nowcast.forecast(x_now, anchors, now, self.climatology, setpoint_fn=self._setpoint_delta)
|
|
|
|
bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {"issued_ts": now, "anchors": anchors, "targets": {}}
|
|
for target, per_h in fc.items():
|
|
series = []
|
|
for h in sorted(per_h):
|
|
p = per_h[h]
|
|
series.append({
|
|
"horizon_s": h,
|
|
"horizon_label": _fmt_horizon(h),
|
|
"valid_ts": now + h,
|
|
"mu": round(p["mu"], 3),
|
|
"lo": round(p["lo"], 3),
|
|
"hi": round(p["hi"], 3),
|
|
"delta": round(p["delta"], 3),
|
|
"weights": {k: round(v, 3) for k, v in p["weights"].items()},
|
|
})
|
|
if persist:
|
|
self.store.insert_forecast(now, h, target, p["mu"], p["lo"],
|
|
p["hi"], "ensemble")
|
|
bundle["targets"][target] = series
|
|
self.forecast_bundle = bundle
|
|
|
|
self.outlook_bundle = {
|
|
"issued_ts": now,
|
|
"ready": self.climatology.ready,
|
|
"annual_terms": self.climatology.use_annual,
|
|
"history_days": round(self.store.span_days(), 2),
|
|
"targets": {
|
|
t: self.climatology.outlook(
|
|
t, now, days=7,
|
|
anomaly=self.climatology.anomaly_now(t, now, anchors.get(t, 0.0)),
|
|
)
|
|
for t in self.cfg.model.targets
|
|
},
|
|
}
|
|
return bundle
|
|
|
|
# ----------------------------------------------------------- verify
|
|
|
|
def verify(self) -> Dict:
|
|
"""Score matured forecasts against truth and against persistence."""
|
|
due = self.store.due_forecasts()
|
|
if not due:
|
|
return {"scored": 0}
|
|
|
|
hist = self.store.window(24 * 8, ["ts", "temp_smooth", "hum_smooth", "press_slp"])
|
|
if hist["ts"].size < 5:
|
|
return {"scored": 0}
|
|
series = {"temperature": hist["temp_smooth"], "humidity": hist["hum_smooth"],
|
|
"pressure": hist["press_slp"]}
|
|
|
|
def value_at(target: str, ts: float) -> Optional[float]:
|
|
idx = int(np.searchsorted(hist["ts"], ts))
|
|
if idx <= 0 or idx >= hist["ts"].size:
|
|
return None
|
|
if abs(hist["ts"][idx] - ts) > 900:
|
|
return None
|
|
return float(series[target][idx])
|
|
|
|
buckets: Dict[tuple, Dict[str, List[float]]] = {}
|
|
scored = 0
|
|
for row in due:
|
|
target, h = row["target"], int(row["horizon_s"])
|
|
truth = value_at(target, row["valid_ts"])
|
|
anchor = value_at(target, row["issued_ts"])
|
|
if truth is None or anchor is None:
|
|
continue
|
|
key = (target, h)
|
|
b = buckets.setdefault(key, {"err": [], "pers": [], "cov": []})
|
|
err = truth - row["mu"]
|
|
b["err"].append(err)
|
|
b["pers"].append(truth - anchor)
|
|
b["cov"].append(1.0 if row["lo"] <= truth <= row["hi"] else 0.0)
|
|
head = self.nowcast.heads.get(key)
|
|
if head is not None:
|
|
head.conformal.observe(err, covered=bool(row["lo"] <= truth <= row["hi"]))
|
|
if h <= 10800:
|
|
self.monitor.observe_error(row["valid_ts"], abs(err))
|
|
scored += 1
|
|
|
|
now = time.time()
|
|
for (target, h), b in buckets.items():
|
|
e = np.asarray(b["err"], dtype=float)
|
|
p = np.asarray(b["pers"], dtype=float)
|
|
mae = float(np.mean(np.abs(e)))
|
|
mae_p = float(np.mean(np.abs(p)))
|
|
self.store.insert_score(
|
|
now, target, h,
|
|
mae=mae,
|
|
rmse=float(np.sqrt(np.mean(e ** 2))),
|
|
bias=float(np.mean(e)),
|
|
mae_persistence=mae_p,
|
|
skill=float(1.0 - mae / mae_p) if mae_p > 1e-9 else 0.0,
|
|
coverage=float(np.mean(b["cov"])),
|
|
n=int(e.size),
|
|
)
|
|
|
|
with self.store._conn() as conn:
|
|
conn.execute("DELETE FROM forecasts WHERE valid_ts <= ?", (now - 3600,))
|
|
return {"scored": scored, "buckets": len(buckets)}
|
|
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------ loops
|
|
|
|
async def _loop_sample(self):
|
|
period = self.cfg.sensor.sample_period_s
|
|
while not self._stop.is_set():
|
|
try:
|
|
self.sample_once()
|
|
now = time.time()
|
|
if now - self.last_persist >= self.cfg.sensor.persist_period_s:
|
|
self.store.insert_telemetry(self.live)
|
|
self.last_persist = now
|
|
except Exception as exc:
|
|
self.store.log_event("sample", "error", repr(exc))
|
|
await asyncio.sleep(period)
|
|
|
|
async def _loop_train(self):
|
|
await asyncio.sleep(5)
|
|
try:
|
|
self.train()
|
|
except Exception as exc:
|
|
self.store.log_event("train", "error", repr(exc))
|
|
while not self._stop.is_set():
|
|
await asyncio.sleep(30)
|
|
now = time.time()
|
|
due = (now - self.last_train) >= self.cfg.model.train_period_s
|
|
if due or self.monitor.retrain_requested:
|
|
try:
|
|
await asyncio.to_thread(self.train)
|
|
except Exception as exc:
|
|
self.store.log_event("train", "error", repr(exc))
|
|
|
|
async def _loop_verify(self):
|
|
await asyncio.sleep(60)
|
|
while not self._stop.is_set():
|
|
try:
|
|
await asyncio.to_thread(self.verify)
|
|
except Exception as exc:
|
|
self.store.log_event("verify", "error", repr(exc))
|
|
await asyncio.sleep(300)
|
|
|
|
async def _loop_maintenance(self):
|
|
while not self._stop.is_set():
|
|
await asyncio.sleep(3600)
|
|
now = time.time()
|
|
if now - self.last_compact >= self.cfg.storage.vacuum_period_s:
|
|
try:
|
|
removed = await asyncio.to_thread(
|
|
self.store.compact,
|
|
self.cfg.storage.raw_retention_days,
|
|
self.cfg.storage.five_min_retention_days,
|
|
)
|
|
self.last_compact = now
|
|
self.store.log_event("compact", "info", json.dumps(removed))
|
|
except Exception as exc:
|
|
self.store.log_event("compact", "error", repr(exc))
|
|
self.save_state()
|
|
|
|
def start(self) -> None:
|
|
self._stop.clear()
|
|
self._tasks = [
|
|
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_sample()),
|
|
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_train()),
|
|
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_verify()),
|
|
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_maintenance()),
|
|
]
|
|
|
|
async def stop(self) -> None:
|
|
self._stop.set()
|
|
for t in self._tasks:
|
|
t.cancel()
|
|
for t in self._tasks:
|
|
try:
|
|
await t
|
|
except (asyncio.CancelledError, Exception):
|
|
pass
|
|
try:
|
|
self.save_state()
|
|
except Exception:
|
|
pass
|
|
|
|
# ------------------------------------------------------------ views
|
|
|
|
def status(self) -> Dict:
|
|
return {
|
|
"site": self.cfg.site.name,
|
|
"hardware": "sense-hat-v2" if self.board.available else "simulator",
|
|
"colour_sensor": self.board.has_colour,
|
|
"rows": self.store.row_count(),
|
|
"history_days": round(self.store.span_days(), 3),
|
|
"last_train": self.last_train,
|
|
"next_train_in_s": max(0.0, self.cfg.model.train_period_s
|
|
- (time.time() - self.last_train)),
|
|
"climatology_ready": self.climatology.ready,
|
|
"annual_terms": self.climatology.use_annual,
|
|
"compensator_k": round(self.tracker.compensator.k, 4),
|
|
"calibrations": self.tracker.compensator.n_calibrations,
|
|
"health": self.monitor.health.overall,
|
|
"drift_stress": round(self.monitor.drift.stress, 3),
|
|
"retrain_requested": self.monitor.retrain_requested,
|
|
"training_log": self.training_log[:5],
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
|
|
def _fmt_horizon(seconds: int) -> str:
|
|
if seconds < 3600:
|
|
return f"{seconds // 60}m"
|
|
if seconds < 86400:
|
|
return f"{seconds // 3600}h"
|
|
return f"{seconds // 86400}d"
|