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https://github.com/lynchaos/ashvale-station.git
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kemal
bb9f0a588f
New Stats for Nerds tab over a new read-only /api/nerd endpoint: Kalman NIS
and covariance per signal, both compensators, all 18 RLS heads with trace(P)
against the cap, |theta|, EWMA RMSE, conformal alpha against target, realised
coverage and ensemble weights, plus per-head feature attribution over the 33
standardised weights, the Mahalanobis and Page-Hinkley detector state,
climatology harmonics and precipitation coefficients.
Methods overhaul: KaTeX now renders the equations. They were previously passed
through .replace(/[{}\\]/g,' '), which stripped every brace and backslash and
turned real mathematics into mush. Stages 2, 3, 5, 6 and 7 gained full
derivations (RLS normal equations and the trace cap, Joseph-form Kalman with
NIS, adaptive conformal with its coverage limit, ridge harmonic regression with
anomaly decay) and a per-symbol legend rendered inline.
Conditions ahead gains weather icons chosen from measured cloud index, solar
elevation and temperature rather than the barometric class alone, so a fine
barometer under overcast draws a cloud and after sunset draws a moon. Snow is
selected on temperature.
Seven day outlook moves to the top of Live, directly under the nav. Tab renamed
Models and Calibration.
Verified in Chromium at 1600x900: Live, History, Models and Nerd all report
zero scrollbars, zero clipping, no page scroll, zero console errors. Methods
keeps its documented prose scroller. Backtest numerically unchanged.
23 lines
484 B
Markdown
23 lines
484 B
Markdown
---
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name: Forecast quality
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about: The models are producing poor or strange forecasts
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labels: forecasting
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---
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**What looks wrong**
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**Output of `python scripts/evaluate.py`**
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```
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```
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**Scorecard from the Models and Calibration tab** (or `GET /api/scorecard`)
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```json
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```
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**How long has the station been logging?** (`history_days` from `/api/status`)
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**Is it indoors?** And is `site.altitude_m` set correctly in your config?
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These two account for most reported forecast oddities.
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