A review of the ranking's arithmetic found four things wrong, all of which made the score look better informed than it was. Measurements below are from this repo, not estimates. **Components now abstain instead of inventing a number.** A run without a VEP cache returns no allele frequencies, and rarity_score(None) read that as "absent from gnomAD, therefore maximally rare" and awarded every variant a free 0.25. jobs.has_frequencies / has_effect_scores record what the run actually produced, absent components are dropped from the weighted mean, and the remaining weights are renormalised so the score keeps its meaning. The UI shows "not looked up" rather than a bar, and the funnel stops calling a step "rare" when nothing was filtered. **Allele frequency is no longer a model feature.** It dominated: the same missense variant scored 0.887 at AF 0 and 0.0003 at AF 0.01. That double- counted, because the ranking already scores frequency explicitly, putting ~45% of every rank on one measurement; and it was circular, because ACMG assigns ClinVar's benign labels using frequency (BA1/BS1). Retraining without it moves missense AUROC from 0.872 to 0.500 — exactly random. The old figure was allele frequency, not variant-effect knowledge. The model therefore abstains unless CADD or AlphaMissense is present, since otherwise it only restates the consequence class. **Phenotype matching is weighted by information content** and HPO annotations are propagated up the ontology. Counting terms alike let "global developmental delay" (IC 0.93) count as much as "dilated left subclavian artery" (IC 7.88). **A real bug in the propagation, found by checking it.** The ancestor walk read a pre-order DFS backwards, which on a DAG lets a term resolve before one of its parents and inherit that parent alone instead of its lineage. It dropped 399 terms out of the phenotype branch, Camptodactyly and Chiari malformation among them. Now a true post-order, tested against a reference transitive closure. The ontology arithmetic moved to rarelens_ml.hpo so it is covered by tests, and rarelens_ml.benchmark measures the whole thing: across 10,178 published cases the causal gene ranks first 45.9-81.0% of the time against 5,269 genes, versus 0.02% for chance. docs/data.md reports that with its contamination (HPO's annotations come from these same case reports), and includes the measurement showing information-content weighting earns its place while propagation does not - kept anyway, for a reason the docs argue rather than assume.
197 lines
5.5 KiB
Python
197 lines
5.5 KiB
Python
import re
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import uuid
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from datetime import datetime
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from pathlib import PurePosixPath
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from typing import TYPE_CHECKING, Literal
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from pydantic import BaseModel, ConfigDict, Field, field_validator
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from app.config import settings
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from app.models import DecisionState, JobStatus
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if TYPE_CHECKING:
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from app.services.triage import Candidate
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class ORMModel(BaseModel):
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model_config = ConfigDict(from_attributes=True)
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Assembly = Literal["GRCh38", "GRCh37"]
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VCF_SUFFIXES = (".vcf", ".vcf.gz", ".vcf.bgz", ".bcf")
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GCS_URI = re.compile(r"gs://[a-z0-9][a-z0-9._-]{1,220}[a-z0-9]/\S+")
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class PhenotypeTerm(ORMModel):
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"""An HPO term: the id is what ranking matches on, the label is for people."""
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hpo_id: str = Field(pattern=r"^HP:\d{7}$")
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label: str = Field(min_length=1, max_length=200)
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class CaseCreate(BaseModel):
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name: str = Field(min_length=1, max_length=120)
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vcf_uri: str
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assembly: Assembly = "GRCh38"
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phenotypes: list[PhenotypeTerm] = Field(default_factory=list, max_length=100)
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@field_validator("vcf_uri")
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@classmethod
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def _gcs_object_or_file_under_data_root(cls, v: str) -> str:
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# The URI becomes a Nextflow argument and a path the pipeline reads: accept a GCS object or
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# a file under the local data root, never something that parses as an option.
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if not v or any(ord(c) < 32 for c in v):
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raise ValueError("vcf_uri must be a non-empty single line")
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if not v.lower().endswith(VCF_SUFFIXES):
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raise ValueError(f"vcf_uri must end in one of {', '.join(VCF_SUFFIXES)}")
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if v.startswith("gs://"):
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if not GCS_URI.fullmatch(v):
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raise ValueError("vcf_uri is not a valid gs://bucket/object URI")
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return v
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path, root = PurePosixPath(v), PurePosixPath(settings.local_data_root)
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if not path.is_absolute() or ".." in path.parts or not path.is_relative_to(root):
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raise ValueError(f"local VCFs must be absolute paths under {root}")
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return v
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class JobOut(ORMModel):
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id: uuid.UUID
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case_id: uuid.UUID
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status: JobStatus
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workflow_ref: str | None
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vep_version: str | None
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log: str | None
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created_at: datetime
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finished_at: datetime | None
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class CaseOut(ORMModel):
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id: uuid.UUID
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name: str
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vcf_uri: str
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assembly: str
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created_at: datetime
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phenotypes: list[PhenotypeTerm] = Field(default_factory=list)
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latest_job: JobOut | None = None
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shortlisted: int = 0
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class PredictionOut(ORMModel):
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model_name: str
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model_version: str
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score: float
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class VariantOut(ORMModel):
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id: int
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chrom: str
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pos: int
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ref: str
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alt: str
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gene: str | None
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consequence: str | None
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impact: str | None
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hgvsc: str | None
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hgvsp: str | None
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gnomad_af: float | None
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clinvar_sig: str | None
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prediction: PredictionOut | None = None
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class DecisionIn(BaseModel):
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state: DecisionState
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reason: str | None = Field(None, max_length=120)
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note: str | None = Field(None, max_length=2000)
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class DecisionOut(ORMModel):
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state: DecisionState
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reason: str | None
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note: str | None
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decided_at: datetime
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class CandidateOut(BaseModel):
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variant: VariantOut
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score: float
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# A null component means that evidence was never looked up, so it did not enter the score.
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# It is not a zero, and the UI must not draw it as an empty bar.
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components: dict[str, float | None]
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matched_terms: list[PhenotypeTerm]
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scored: bool
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decision: DecisionOut | None = None
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@classmethod
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def from_candidate(cls, candidate: "Candidate", labels: dict[str, str]) -> "CandidateOut":
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variant = candidate.variant
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return cls(
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variant=VariantOut.model_validate(variant),
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score=round(candidate.score, 4),
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components={
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name: None if v is None else round(v, 4)
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for name, v in candidate.components.items()
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},
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matched_terms=[
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PhenotypeTerm(hpo_id=term, label=labels.get(term, term))
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for term in candidate.matched_terms
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],
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scored=candidate.scored,
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decision=DecisionOut.model_validate(variant.decision) if variant.decision else None,
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)
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class VariantDetailOut(CandidateOut):
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annotations: dict
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class FunnelOut(BaseModel):
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total: int
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rare: int
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candidates: int
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phenotype_matched: int
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frequencies: bool = False # False: the rare step could not filter, nothing was looked up
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class EvidenceOut(BaseModel):
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"""What the annotation run produced, and therefore which components scored at all."""
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frequencies: bool
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effect_scores: bool
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missing: list[str]
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class CandidatePage(BaseModel):
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funnel: FunnelOut
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evidence: EvidenceOut
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# The weights as applied: renormalised over the components that had evidence.
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weights: dict[str, float]
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items: list[CandidateOut]
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total: int
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limit: int
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offset: int
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class ProvenanceOut(BaseModel):
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job_id: uuid.UUID | None = None
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vep_version: str | None = None
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finished_at: datetime | None = None
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model_name: str | None = None
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model_version: str | None = None
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class ReportOut(BaseModel):
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case: CaseOut
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funnel: FunnelOut
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generated_at: datetime
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provenance: ProvenanceOut
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shortlisted: list[CandidateOut]
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dismissed: list[CandidateOut]
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# What a reviewer would look at next; a report with no decisions yet still says something.
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top: list[CandidateOut]
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class ScoreOut(BaseModel):
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case_id: uuid.UUID
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scored: int
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model_version: str
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