Files
ashvale-station/ashvale/station.py
T
kemal e27a4b41c8 Outlook to Live, humidity calibration, Models tab rebuilt without scrollers
Seven day outlook moves from History to Live, which now runs four rows.
Conditions ahead tightened so the Live column no longer needs a scroller.

Adds HumidityCompensator: an additive RH offset estimated by one-step RLS from
a trusted hygrometer, clamped to +/-35%, persisted, exposed at
POST /api/calibrate/humidity and on the renamed Models and calibration tab.

It also implements the psychrometric term (RH moved from element temperature
onto air temperature via conserved vapour pressure) but leaves it OFF by
default. The thermal argument predicts a hot element reads low; measured
against a reference hygrometer this board read 75.4% where the truth was
50.4%, so it reads HIGH and that correction would push it the wrong way. When
the flag is enabled, simulate.py applies the exact inverse, per the
simulator/compensator trap in DESIGN.md section 2.

Models pane rebuilt: the scorecard is one column per target so all 18 heads
are visible, and no panel on the tab uses an internal scroller. Verified in
Chromium at 1600x900: Live, History and Models all report zero scrollbars,
zero clipping, no page scroll, zero console errors. Backtest is numerically
identical to the previous commit, confirming the humidity work is a no-op
while the flag is off.
2026-08-15 21:36:10 +01:00

591 lines
25 KiB
Python

# Copyright 2026 Kemal Yaylali
#
# Licensed under the Apache License, Version 2.0 (the "License");
# you may not use this file except in compliance with the License.
# You may obtain a copy of the License at
#
# http://www.apache.org/licenses/LICENSE-2.0
#
# Unless required by applicable law or agreed to in writing, software
# distributed under the License is distributed on an "AS IS" BASIS,
# WITHOUT WARRANTIES OR CONDITIONS OF ANY KIND, either express or implied.
# See the License for the specific language governing permissions and
# limitations under the License.
"""The station: everything wired together and running on its own clocks.
Four asynchronous loops, deliberately decoupled so a slow one cannot
starve a fast one:
sample (2 s) read hardware, run the Kalman bank, keep live state
persist (30 s) one row to SQLite
train (10 min) rebuild the feature grid, update every head, re-fit
climatology, emit a fresh forecast bundle
verify (5 min) score forecasts whose validity time has arrived, feed
the errors to conformal calibration and drift
detection, write the scorecard
The verify loop is the one most projects skip and the one that makes the
difference. A forecast that is never scored is an opinion; a forecast
that is scored against persistence is a measurement.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import asyncio
import json
import time
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
import numpy as np
from . import physics
from .config import Config
from .estimation import SignalTracker
from .features import build_features
from .models.anomaly import AnomalyMonitor
from .models.climatology import HarmonicClimatology
from .models.nowcast import NowcastEnsemble
from .models.precip import PrecipitationModel, proxy_wet_label, zambretti
from .sensors import SenseBoard, enrich
from .storage import Store, resample
STATE_VERSION = 1
class Station:
def __init__(self, cfg: Config):
self.cfg = cfg
self.store = Store(cfg.storage.db_path)
self.board = SenseBoard(
rotation=cfg.sensor.rotation_deg,
low_light=cfg.sensor.low_light,
tcs_addr=cfg.sensor.tcs3400_addr,
latitude=cfg.site.latitude,
longitude=cfg.site.longitude,
)
self.tracker = SignalTracker(cfg)
self.nowcast = NowcastEnsemble(cfg.model.targets, cfg.model.horizons_s, cfg.model)
self.climatology = HarmonicClimatology(
cfg.model.targets, min_days_annual=cfg.model.climatology_min_days_annual
)
self.precip = PrecipitationModel()
self.monitor = AnomalyMonitor(cfg.model)
self.live: Dict[str, Any] = {}
self.forecast_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
self.outlook_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
self.precip_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
self.anomaly_bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {}
self.last_train: float = 0.0
self.last_persist: float = 0.0
self.last_compact: float = 0.0
self.training_log: List[Dict] = []
self._tasks: List[asyncio.Task] = []
self._stop = asyncio.Event()
self.state_path = Path(cfg.storage.state_dir) / "station_state.json"
self.load_state()
# ------------------------------------------------------------ state
def save_state(self) -> None:
payload = {
"version": STATE_VERSION,
"saved_at": time.time(),
"tracker": self.tracker.to_dict(),
"nowcast": self.nowcast.to_dict(),
"climatology": self.climatology.to_dict(),
"precip": self.precip.to_dict(),
"monitor": self.monitor.to_dict(),
}
tmp = self.state_path.with_suffix(".tmp")
with open(tmp, "w", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
json.dump(payload, fh)
tmp.replace(self.state_path) # atomic, survives a power cut mid-write
def load_state(self) -> bool:
if not self.state_path.exists():
return False
try:
with open(self.state_path, "r", encoding="utf-8") as fh:
s = json.load(fh)
if s.get("version") != STATE_VERSION:
return False
self.tracker.load_dict(s["tracker"])
self.nowcast.load_dict(s["nowcast"])
self.climatology.load_dict(s["climatology"])
self.precip.load_dict(s["precip"])
self.monitor.load_dict(s["monitor"])
return True
except Exception as exc:
self.store.log_event("state", "warn", f"could not restore state: {exc}")
return False
# ----------------------------------------------------------- sample
def sample_once(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
ts = time.time()
raw = self.board.read()
raw = enrich(raw, self.cfg.site.altitude_m)
est = self.tracker.step(ts, raw.get("temp_raw", float("nan")),
raw.get("hum", float("nan")),
raw.get("press", float("nan")),
raw.get("cpu_temp", float("nan")))
temp_c = est["temp_smooth"]
slp = float(physics.sea_level_pressure(est["press_smooth"], temp_c,
self.cfg.site.altitude_m))
dew = float(physics.dew_point(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"]))
elev, azim = physics.solar_position(ts, self.cfg.site.latitude,
self.cfg.site.longitude)
expected = float(physics.clear_sky_irradiance(elev))
lux = float(raw.get("lux", 0.0) or 0.0)
cloud = (float(np.clip(1.0 - lux / max(expected * 45.0, 1.0), 0.0, 1.0))
if elev > 5.0 else 0.5)
row = {
"ts": ts,
"temp_raw": raw.get("temp_raw"),
"temp_c": est["temp_c"],
"temp_smooth": temp_c,
"temp_rate": est["temp_rate"],
"hum": raw.get("hum"),
"hum_smooth": est["hum_smooth"],
"press": raw.get("press"),
"press_slp": slp,
"press_smooth": est["press_smooth"],
"press_rate": est["press_rate"],
"cpu_temp": raw.get("cpu_temp"),
"dew_c": dew,
"lux": lux,
"r": raw.get("r"), "g": raw.get("g"), "b": raw.get("b"),
"pitch": raw.get("pitch"), "roll": raw.get("roll"),
"yaw": raw.get("yaw"), "compass": raw.get("compass"),
"ax": raw.get("ax"), "ay": raw.get("ay"), "az": raw.get("az"),
"gx": raw.get("gx"), "gy": raw.get("gy"), "gz": raw.get("gz"),
}
anomaly = self.monitor.observe(ts, {
"temp_c": temp_c, "hum": est["hum_smooth"], "press_slp": slp,
"temp_rate": est["temp_rate"], "press_rate": est["press_rate"],
"dew_c": dew, "cpu_temp": raw.get("cpu_temp"),
})
self.anomaly_bundle = anomaly
self.live = {
**row,
"timestamp": time.strftime("%H:%M:%S", time.localtime(ts)),
"colour": raw.get("colour", {}),
"simulated": bool(raw.get("simulated", not self.board.available)),
"dew_depression": temp_c - dew,
"vpd": float(physics.vapour_pressure_deficit(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
"wet_bulb": float(physics.wet_bulb(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
"heat_index": float(physics.heat_index(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
"abs_humidity": float(physics.absolute_humidity(temp_c, est["hum_smooth"])),
"solar_elevation": float(elev),
"solar_azimuth": float(azim),
"clear_sky_wm2": expected,
"cloud_index": cloud,
"cpu_offset": (raw.get("cpu_temp") or float("nan")) - (raw.get("temp_raw") or float("nan")),
"compensator_k": self.tracker.compensator.k,
"hum_offset": self.tracker.hum_compensator.offset,
"hum_psychrometric": float(est["hum_c"]) - float(raw.get("hum") or float("nan")),
"health": anomaly["health_overall"],
"novelty_d2": anomaly["novelty"].get("d2", 0.0),
}
self._update_precip()
return self.live
def _observation_vector(self) -> Dict[str, float]:
live = self.live
hist = self.store.window(8.0, ["ts", "press_slp", "temp_c", "dew_c"])
tend = {"tend_1h": live.get("press_rate", 0.0),
"tend_3h": live.get("press_rate", 0.0),
"tend_6h": live.get("press_rate", 0.0)}
if hist["ts"].size > 5:
now = hist["ts"][-1]
for key, hours in (("tend_1h", 1.0), ("tend_3h", 3.0), ("tend_6h", 6.0)):
idx = np.searchsorted(hist["ts"], now - hours * 3600.0)
if 0 <= idx < hist["ts"].size - 1:
dtp = (now - hist["ts"][idx]) / 3600.0
if dtp > 0.25:
tend[key] = float((hist["press_slp"][-1] - hist["press_slp"][idx]) / dtp)
dew_dep = live.get("dew_depression", 5.0)
dew_dep_rate = 0.0
if hist["ts"].size > 5:
idx = np.searchsorted(hist["ts"], hist["ts"][-1] - 3600.0)
if 0 <= idx < hist["ts"].size - 1:
past = hist["temp_c"][idx] - hist["dew_c"][idx]
dew_dep_rate = float(dew_dep - past)
return {
"slp": live.get("press_slp", 1013.25),
"rh": live.get("hum_smooth", 60.0),
"dew_depression": dew_dep,
"dew_dep_rate": dew_dep_rate,
"cloud_index": live.get("cloud_index", 0.5),
"temp_dev": self.climatology.anomaly_now(
"temperature", live.get("ts", time.time()), live.get("temp_smooth", 0.0)
),
"wet_bulb_depression": live.get("temp_smooth", 0.0) - live.get("wet_bulb", 0.0),
**tend,
}
def _update_precip(self) -> None:
obs = self._observation_vector()
zam = zambretti(obs["slp"], obs["tend_3h"], self.live.get("ts"),
self.cfg.site.latitude)
self.precip_bundle = self.precip.predict(obs, zam)
self.precip_bundle["indoors_caveat"] = self.cfg.site.indoors
y = proxy_wet_label(obs["rh"], obs["dew_depression"], obs["cloud_index"])
if y is not None and int(self.live.get("ts", 0)) % 300 < self.cfg.sensor.sample_period_s:
self.precip.learn(obs, zam, y, strong=False)
def add_label(self, kind: str, value: float, ts: Optional[float] = None,
note: str = "") -> Dict:
"""Human-in-the-loop ground truth. Worth ten times a proxy label."""
ts = ts or time.time()
self.store.insert_label(ts, kind, value, note)
if kind == "rain":
obs = self._observation_vector()
zam = zambretti(obs["slp"], obs["tend_3h"], ts, self.cfg.site.latitude)
loss = self.precip.learn(obs, zam, float(value), strong=True)
self.store.log_event("label", "info",
f"strong rain label {value} accepted, loss {loss:.3f}", ts)
return {"accepted": True, "loss": loss, "strong_labels": self.precip.n_strong}
return {"accepted": True}
def calibrate_temperature(self, reference_c: float) -> Dict:
raw = self.live.get("temp_raw")
cpu = self.live.get("cpu_temp")
if raw is None or cpu is None:
return {"error": "no live reading yet"}
result = self.tracker.compensator.calibrate(float(raw), float(cpu), float(reference_c))
self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
f"k -> {result['k']:.3f} (residual {result['residual']:+.2f} C)")
return result
def calibrate_humidity(self, reference_pct: float) -> Dict:
raw_h = self.live.get("hum")
raw_t = self.live.get("temp_raw")
temp_c = self.live.get("temp_c")
if raw_h is None or raw_t is None or temp_c is None:
return {"error": "no live reading yet"}
result = self.tracker.hum_compensator.calibrate(
float(raw_h), float(raw_t), float(temp_c), float(reference_pct))
self.save_state()
self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
f"rh offset -> {result['offset']:+.2f}% "
f"(residual {result['residual']:+.2f}%)")
return result
def reset_humidity_calibration(self) -> Dict:
from .estimation import HumidityCompensator
self.tracker.hum_compensator = HumidityCompensator(
self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset, self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset_min,
self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset_max,
psychrometric=self.cfg.sensor.hum_psychrometric,
)
self.save_state()
self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
f"rh offset reset to prior {self.cfg.sensor.hum_offset}")
return {"offset": self.tracker.hum_compensator.offset, "reset": True, "n": 0}
def reset_calibration(self) -> Dict:
"""Return the self-heating coefficient to its configured prior.
Worth having: a single mistyped reference reading can drive `k`
to its clamp, and because state persists across restarts it will
stay there quietly biasing every reading until you notice.
"""
from .estimation import ThermalCompensator
self.tracker.compensator = ThermalCompensator(
self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k, self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k_min,
self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k_max,
)
self.save_state()
self.store.log_event("calibration", "info",
f"coefficient reset to prior k={self.cfg.sensor.cpu_heat_k}")
return {"k": self.tracker.compensator.k, "reset": True, "n": 0}
# ------------------------------------------------------------ train
def build_training_grid(self, hours: float = 24 * 30):
raw = self.store.window(hours, ["ts", "temp_smooth", "hum_smooth",
"press_slp", "lux"])
if raw["ts"].size < 10:
return None
grid_ts, cols = resample(
raw["ts"],
{"temperature": raw["temp_smooth"], "humidity": raw["hum_smooth"],
"pressure": raw["press_slp"], "lux": raw["lux"]},
self.cfg.model.grid_s,
)
if grid_ts.size < self.cfg.model.min_rows_to_train:
return None
X, valid = build_features(
grid_ts, cols["temperature"], cols["humidity"], cols["pressure"],
cols["lux"], self.cfg.model.grid_s,
self.cfg.site.latitude, self.cfg.site.longitude,
)
return grid_ts, cols, X, valid
def train(self, hours: float = 24 * 30) -> Dict:
t_start = time.time()
built = self.build_training_grid(hours)
if built is None:
return {"trained": False,
"reason": f"need at least {self.cfg.model.min_rows_to_train} grid rows"}
grid_ts, cols, X, valid = built
clim_scores = self.climatology.fit(grid_ts, cols, valid)
counts = self.nowcast.fit(X, valid, cols, self.climatology, grid_ts)
self.last_train = time.time()
self.monitor.clear_retrain_flag()
entry = {
"ts": self.last_train,
"grid_rows": int(grid_ts.size),
"valid_rows": int(valid.sum()),
"span_days": round(float((grid_ts[-1] - grid_ts[0]) / 86400.0), 2),
"pairs": counts,
"climatology_resid_std": {k: round(v, 3) for k, v in clim_scores.items()},
"annual_terms": self.climatology.use_annual,
"seconds": round(time.time() - t_start, 2),
}
self.training_log = ([entry] + self.training_log)[:20]
self.store.log_event("train", "info",
f"retrained on {grid_ts.size} grid rows in {entry['seconds']}s")
self.refresh_forecasts()
self.save_state()
return {"trained": True, **entry}
# --------------------------------------------------------- forecast
def refresh_forecasts(self, persist: bool = True) -> Dict:
built = self.build_training_grid(hours=48.0)
now = time.time()
if built is None or not self.live:
return {}
grid_ts, cols, X, valid = built
x_now = X[-1]
anchors = {
"temperature": float(self.live.get("temp_smooth", cols["temperature"][-1])),
"humidity": float(self.live.get("hum_smooth", cols["humidity"][-1])),
"pressure": float(self.live.get("press_slp", cols["pressure"][-1])),
}
fc = self.nowcast.forecast(x_now, anchors, now, self.climatology)
bundle: Dict[str, Any] = {"issued_ts": now, "anchors": anchors, "targets": {}}
for target, per_h in fc.items():
series = []
for h in sorted(per_h):
p = per_h[h]
series.append({
"horizon_s": h,
"horizon_label": _fmt_horizon(h),
"valid_ts": now + h,
"mu": round(p["mu"], 3),
"lo": round(p["lo"], 3),
"hi": round(p["hi"], 3),
"delta": round(p["delta"], 3),
"weights": {k: round(v, 3) for k, v in p["weights"].items()},
})
if persist:
self.store.insert_forecast(now, h, target, p["mu"], p["lo"],
p["hi"], "ensemble")
bundle["targets"][target] = series
self.forecast_bundle = bundle
self.outlook_bundle = {
"issued_ts": now,
"ready": self.climatology.ready,
"annual_terms": self.climatology.use_annual,
"history_days": round(self.store.span_days(), 2),
"targets": {
t: self.climatology.outlook(
t, now, days=7,
anomaly=self.climatology.anomaly_now(t, now, anchors.get(t, 0.0)),
)
for t in self.cfg.model.targets
},
}
return bundle
# ----------------------------------------------------------- verify
def verify(self) -> Dict:
"""Score matured forecasts against truth and against persistence."""
due = self.store.due_forecasts()
if not due:
return {"scored": 0}
hist = self.store.window(24 * 8, ["ts", "temp_smooth", "hum_smooth", "press_slp"])
if hist["ts"].size < 5:
return {"scored": 0}
series = {"temperature": hist["temp_smooth"], "humidity": hist["hum_smooth"],
"pressure": hist["press_slp"]}
def value_at(target: str, ts: float) -> Optional[float]:
idx = int(np.searchsorted(hist["ts"], ts))
if idx <= 0 or idx >= hist["ts"].size:
return None
if abs(hist["ts"][idx] - ts) > 900:
return None
return float(series[target][idx])
buckets: Dict[tuple, Dict[str, List[float]]] = {}
scored = 0
for row in due:
target, h = row["target"], int(row["horizon_s"])
truth = value_at(target, row["valid_ts"])
anchor = value_at(target, row["issued_ts"])
if truth is None or anchor is None:
continue
key = (target, h)
b = buckets.setdefault(key, {"err": [], "pers": [], "cov": []})
err = truth - row["mu"]
b["err"].append(err)
b["pers"].append(truth - anchor)
b["cov"].append(1.0 if row["lo"] <= truth <= row["hi"] else 0.0)
head = self.nowcast.heads.get(key)
if head is not None:
head.conformal.observe(err, covered=bool(row["lo"] <= truth <= row["hi"]))
if h <= 10800:
self.monitor.observe_error(row["valid_ts"], abs(err))
scored += 1
now = time.time()
for (target, h), b in buckets.items():
e = np.asarray(b["err"], dtype=float)
p = np.asarray(b["pers"], dtype=float)
mae = float(np.mean(np.abs(e)))
mae_p = float(np.mean(np.abs(p)))
self.store.insert_score(
now, target, h,
mae=mae,
rmse=float(np.sqrt(np.mean(e ** 2))),
bias=float(np.mean(e)),
mae_persistence=mae_p,
skill=float(1.0 - mae / mae_p) if mae_p > 1e-9 else 0.0,
coverage=float(np.mean(b["cov"])),
n=int(e.size),
)
with self.store._conn() as conn:
conn.execute("DELETE FROM forecasts WHERE valid_ts <= ?", (now - 3600,))
return {"scored": scored, "buckets": len(buckets)}
# ------------------------------------------------------------ loops
async def _loop_sample(self):
period = self.cfg.sensor.sample_period_s
while not self._stop.is_set():
try:
self.sample_once()
now = time.time()
if now - self.last_persist >= self.cfg.sensor.persist_period_s:
self.store.insert_telemetry(self.live)
self.last_persist = now
except Exception as exc:
self.store.log_event("sample", "error", repr(exc))
await asyncio.sleep(period)
async def _loop_train(self):
await asyncio.sleep(5)
try:
self.train()
except Exception as exc:
self.store.log_event("train", "error", repr(exc))
while not self._stop.is_set():
await asyncio.sleep(30)
now = time.time()
due = (now - self.last_train) >= self.cfg.model.train_period_s
if due or self.monitor.retrain_requested:
try:
await asyncio.to_thread(self.train)
except Exception as exc:
self.store.log_event("train", "error", repr(exc))
async def _loop_verify(self):
await asyncio.sleep(60)
while not self._stop.is_set():
try:
await asyncio.to_thread(self.verify)
except Exception as exc:
self.store.log_event("verify", "error", repr(exc))
await asyncio.sleep(300)
async def _loop_maintenance(self):
while not self._stop.is_set():
await asyncio.sleep(3600)
now = time.time()
if now - self.last_compact >= self.cfg.storage.vacuum_period_s:
try:
removed = await asyncio.to_thread(
self.store.compact,
self.cfg.storage.raw_retention_days,
self.cfg.storage.five_min_retention_days,
)
self.last_compact = now
self.store.log_event("compact", "info", json.dumps(removed))
except Exception as exc:
self.store.log_event("compact", "error", repr(exc))
self.save_state()
def start(self) -> None:
self._stop.clear()
self._tasks = [
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_sample()),
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_train()),
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_verify()),
asyncio.create_task(self._loop_maintenance()),
]
async def stop(self) -> None:
self._stop.set()
for t in self._tasks:
t.cancel()
for t in self._tasks:
try:
await t
except (asyncio.CancelledError, Exception):
pass
try:
self.save_state()
except Exception:
pass
# ------------------------------------------------------------ views
def status(self) -> Dict:
return {
"site": self.cfg.site.name,
"hardware": "sense-hat-v2" if self.board.available else "simulator",
"colour_sensor": self.board.has_colour,
"rows": self.store.row_count(),
"history_days": round(self.store.span_days(), 3),
"last_train": self.last_train,
"next_train_in_s": max(0.0, self.cfg.model.train_period_s
- (time.time() - self.last_train)),
"climatology_ready": self.climatology.ready,
"annual_terms": self.climatology.use_annual,
"compensator_k": round(self.tracker.compensator.k, 4),
"calibrations": self.tracker.compensator.n_calibrations,
"health": self.monitor.health.overall,
"drift_stress": round(self.monitor.drift.stress, 3),
"retrain_requested": self.monitor.retrain_requested,
"training_log": self.training_log[:5],
}
def _fmt_horizon(seconds: int) -> str:
if seconds < 3600:
return f"{seconds // 60}m"
if seconds < 86400:
return f"{seconds // 3600}h"
return f"{seconds // 86400}d"