Two changes to the same signal path, one large and one small.
The large one: all three filters were tuned to track one to three decades
faster than their signals move. In a still room the temperature filter
reported a median rate of 12.4 C/h while the air moved 0.4 C/h, and it
overshot a real -36 C/h event by 77%. Sweeping q against the RMSE of the
reported rate versus the true rate, using noise measured on the board
(temperature 0.088 C, pressure 0.022 hPa, humidity 0.40 %):
temperature 6.45 -> 0.37 C/h RMSE 2e-6 -> 1e-9
pressure 2.15 -> 0.24 hPa/h RMSE 1e-5 -> 1e-8
humidity 27.94 -> 3.55 %/h RMSE 5e-5 -> 2e-8
Tracking does not suffer. Lag against a genuine 2 C/h ramp is 0.003 C at both
the old and new values, and the peak response to a five-minute event moves
closer to the truth rather than further from it, because the overshoot goes
away. What is given up is response to sub-minute transients, which for a
station forecasting fifteen minutes to a day ahead is noise to reject.
This matters most for pressure, whose tendency drives the precipitation
forecast, and which was the worst tuned of the three.
config.yaml shadowed kalman_q_temp, so editing the dataclass alone changed
nothing. All six values are now listed there with that hazard spelled out,
because a silent shadow cost real time here.
The small one: temp_raw was the plain average of two thermometers whose
white-noise sds differ by 7x (LPS25HB 0.007 C, HTS221 0.049 C), which throws
the quiet one away. Inverse-variance weighting cuts the raw noise 3.5x.
The trap is that the chips do not agree. They sit at different distances from
the SoC and stand about 1.3 C apart, so weighting by variance alone drags
temp_raw 0.48 C onto the LPS25HB, which after the 1.55x gain of the inverse
compensator is 0.75 C of silent bias on every reading, since k was fitted
against the mean of the two. The gradient is therefore tracked and removed
before weighting and only the deviations are fused: measured mean shift
0.0001 C, noise still 3.5x lower. The tracked gradient is retained because it
is a second observation of self-heating.
Also corrected: the earlier claim that the HTS221 was the quieter channel was
wrong, taken from twelve samples at a cadence slow enough that real drift
dominated. At 0.5 s over 120 samples the LPS25HB is quieter by 7x and takes
98% of the weight.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <[email protected]>
kemalandClaude Opus 5