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Retune the Kalman process noise, and fuse the two thermometers
Two changes to the same signal path, one large and one small. The large one: all three filters were tuned to track one to three decades faster than their signals move. In a still room the temperature filter reported a median rate of 12.4 C/h while the air moved 0.4 C/h, and it overshot a real -36 C/h event by 77%. Sweeping q against the RMSE of the reported rate versus the true rate, using noise measured on the board (temperature 0.088 C, pressure 0.022 hPa, humidity 0.40 %): temperature 6.45 -> 0.37 C/h RMSE 2e-6 -> 1e-9 pressure 2.15 -> 0.24 hPa/h RMSE 1e-5 -> 1e-8 humidity 27.94 -> 3.55 %/h RMSE 5e-5 -> 2e-8 Tracking does not suffer. Lag against a genuine 2 C/h ramp is 0.003 C at both the old and new values, and the peak response to a five-minute event moves closer to the truth rather than further from it, because the overshoot goes away. What is given up is response to sub-minute transients, which for a station forecasting fifteen minutes to a day ahead is noise to reject. This matters most for pressure, whose tendency drives the precipitation forecast, and which was the worst tuned of the three. config.yaml shadowed kalman_q_temp, so editing the dataclass alone changed nothing. All six values are now listed there with that hazard spelled out, because a silent shadow cost real time here. The small one: temp_raw was the plain average of two thermometers whose white-noise sds differ by 7x (LPS25HB 0.007 C, HTS221 0.049 C), which throws the quiet one away. Inverse-variance weighting cuts the raw noise 3.5x. The trap is that the chips do not agree. They sit at different distances from the SoC and stand about 1.3 C apart, so weighting by variance alone drags temp_raw 0.48 C onto the LPS25HB, which after the 1.55x gain of the inverse compensator is 0.75 C of silent bias on every reading, since k was fitted against the mean of the two. The gradient is therefore tracked and removed before weighting and only the deviations are fused: measured mean shift 0.0001 C, noise still 3.5x lower. The tracked gradient is retained because it is a second observation of self-heating. Also corrected: the earlier claim that the HTS221 was the quieter channel was wrong, taken from twelve samples at a cadence slow enough that real drift dominated. At 0.5 s over 120 samples the LPS25HB is quieter by 7x and takes 98% of the weight.
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@@ -110,11 +110,29 @@ class SensorConfig:
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hum_offset_min: float = -35.0
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hum_offset_max: float = 35.0
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# Kalman process/measurement noise (per-signal)
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kalman_q_temp: float = 2.0e-6
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kalman_q_temp: float = 1.0e-9
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kalman_r_temp: float = 0.02
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kalman_q_press: float = 1.0e-5
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# Process noise, retuned against measured sensor noise rather than guessed.
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#
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# The originals tracked far faster than any of these signals move. In a
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# still room the temperature filter reported a median rate of 12.4 C/h
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# while the air moved 0.37 C/h, and it overshot a real -36 C/h event by
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# 77%. Sweeping q against the RMSE of the reported rate versus the true
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# rate, using noise measured on the board (temp 0.088 C, press 0.022 hPa,
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# hum 0.40 %), puts the minimum about two to three decades lower:
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#
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# temperature 6.45 -> 0.37 C/h RMSE at 2e-6 -> 1e-9
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# pressure 2.15 -> 0.24 hPa/h RMSE at 1e-5 -> 1e-8
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# humidity 27.94 -> 3.55 %/h RMSE at 5e-5 -> 2e-8
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#
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# Tracking does not suffer: lag against a genuine 2 C/h ramp is 0.003 C at
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# both the old and new values, and peak response to a 5-minute event is
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# closer to the truth, not further from it. What is lost is response to
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# sub-minute transients, which for a station forecasting 15 minutes to a
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# day ahead is noise to reject rather than signal to chase.
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kalman_q_press: float = 1.0e-8
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kalman_r_press: float = 0.05
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kalman_q_hum: float = 5.0e-5
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kalman_q_hum: float = 2.0e-8
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kalman_r_hum: float = 0.60
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